Citizens of Kazakhstan had their say in the referendum, giving the Central Asian nation’s leadership the green light to build a nuclear power plant. Foreign powers operating in the strategically important region will likely soon begin a diplomatic struggle to secure the right to construct the first nuclear facility in the former Soviet republic.

By Nikola Mikovic
According to the official results of the referendum held on October 6, 71,12% of the Kazakh population has supported the construction of the nuclear power plant in the energy-rich country. Since Kazakhstan lacks experience in advanced nuclear technology, engineering expertise, and rigorous safety standards required for building and operating a nuclear power plant, it will likely need to find a strategic partner to assist with the project.

The Kazakh authorities must choose between the China National Nuclear Corporation, Russia’s State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom, South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation, and the French EDF (Électricité de France) company. This choice will be tough, given that it will impact Astana’s geopolitical vector.

Since it declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan began pursuing the so-called “multi-vector” foreign policy – engaging with multiple global powers and balancing relationships. The Central Asian nation’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant should be entrusted to “an international consortium”, indicating that he continues to balance the interests of various foreign powers.

However, there are fears that Rosatom could soon be invited to participate in the plant’s construction, a move that would make Kazakhstan heavily dependent on Moscow.

“While Kazakhstan might have to depend on foreign expertise initially, this does not preclude the possibility of achieving greater energy independence in the long term,” James Walker, CEO and Head of Reactor Development at NANO Nuclear Energy said in an interview with The Liberum.

In his view, by engaging with international partners, Kazakhstan can build its domestic capabilities and gradually reduce its reliance on foreign technology and expertise.

“Over time, as the country gains experience and develops its own nuclear industry, it could achieve a higher degree of self-sufficiency, particularly if it invests in training, education, and the development of a skilled workforce in the nuclear sector,” Walker stressed.

Kazakhstan mainly relies on coal-powered plants for its electricity needs, supplemented by some hydroelectric plants and the growing renewable energy sector. The NANO Nuclear Energy expert believes that the ability to generate a significant portion of its electricity through nuclear means would make Kazakhstan less dependent on external sources and more resilient in the face of regional and global energy challenges.

However, using nuclear materials is a rather delicate issue in Central Asia. During the Soviet era, Kazakhstan was the site of hundreds of nuclear weapon tests, which have made swathes of land uninhabitable, affecting the health of dozens of thousands of people. Supporters of the project, however, believe that Kazakhstan’s position as one of the world’s largest uranium producers makes nuclear energy a logical choice.

Although the former Soviet republic holds 12% of the world's uranium reserves, much of the chemical element is still exported rather than utilised domestically. More importantly, despite being rich in natural resources, Kazakhstan often has to import electricity, mainly from Russia.

“The ability to generate electricity from domestically sourced uranium is a significant step toward energy independence,” Walker emphasised, pointing out that Kazakhstan has raw materials necessary to fuel its nuclear reactors for decades, potentially securing a stable and self-sufficient energy supply.

Astana aims to reduce its dependence on electricity imports and bolster its national sovereignty, and nuclear energy could provide a viable option for achieving greater self-reliance. That is one reason why the Kazakh government strongly advocates for the construction of a nuclear power plant close to Lake Balkhash in the southeast of the country, even though the project could cost up to $12 billion.

“In addition to the economic considerations, there is also a geopolitical dimension to the push for nuclear energy. By developing a domestic nuclear power industry, Kazakhstan seeks to assert itself as a leading energy player in Central Asia and beyond,” Walker said. Highlighting that the Kazakh government will likely need to rely on international partners – be they Russia, China, South Korea, or European nations – to build and possibly even operate its first nuclear power plant.

Even though the development of nuclear energy could spur significant growth and technological advancement in Kazakhstan, the authorities in Astana are fully aware that the former Soviet republic cannot build a nuclear power plant on its own. Thus, in the coming months and years, Tokayev is expected to hold talks with various world leaders, during which his energy initiative will undoubtedly be on the agenda.

But striking a delicate balance among countries with varying geopolitical interests in the strategically important region of Central Asia will be easier said than done.