Ironically, on the very day the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, a new round of violence erupted in Syria. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham launched a military operation in western Aleppo’s countryside, targeting the Syrian Armed Forces. This assault resulted in the killing and capture of numerous Syrian and Russian soldiers. Was this a coincidence?

By Ahmad Ghosn
Let’s break it down. The operation was executed by a coalition dubbed “Military Operations Management Fighters,” comprising Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other armed opposition factions. Media coverage came from Syrian TV, headquartered in Istanbul and funded by Qatar’s “Fadaat Media,” which owns Al-Araby newspaper and Al-Araby TV Network.

Broadcasted footage revealed fewer than a hundred fighters, supported by a small “Air Unit,” operating a modest fleet of drones called “Chahine troop” with limited numbers and capabilities.

Figures promoting the campaign on this channel included Hatem Al-Rawi, the defected Brigadier General Ahmed Rahhal speaking live from the studio, and journalist Hafez Karkout joining from Stockholm. Their commentary focused on three critical narratives:

The operation was retaliation for Russia’s recent intensification of airstrikes, and It was an opportune moment to strike, given the Syrian regime’s perceived weakness due to the struggles of its allies, Hezbollah and Iran. In addition, they see that this battle aimed to reignite global attention on the Syrian cause.

They further speculated:

Without Russian air force intervention, the depleted and poorly equipped Syrian army would be an easy target. Also, the campaign could ultimately serve Turkey’s interests, "Which is trying to make a deal with the Syrian government recently"

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his speech yesterday, outlined three reasons for the ceasefire:

1. “Focusing on the Iranian threat, and I am not going to expand on that,“ he stated.

Maybe Israel expects Syria and Russia to tolerate its actions against Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Syria, using armed opposition groups as proxies. Israel continued the war with Iran, but in another area and with other fighters.

2. “Refreshing our forces and getting armament.”

This may lead Israel to a proxy war, leveraging these groups to target Iranian and Hezbollah interests in Syria. This group was maintained for a while, which made it ready. Also, The group hopes to involve rallying segments of the Syrian population while striking key adversaries.

3. “Separating Hamas and this front.”

That highlights the need for the Israeli C2 to focus on and finalise the Gaza case and solve the “Destroying Hamas” claim.

Netanyahu’s ceasefire declaration with Lebanon coincided on the same day of these operations. That observation directly aligns with Natasha Hall's, a Senior Fellow at CSIS. When asked on DW, “Do you think that Israel is truly interested in ending this war?”

And she said: “I think few wars truly end these days."

If all that has been stated recently is just theoretical insights, there are more reasons why this can be an Israeli investment.

Israel is always searching for “more reason” to continue its war and to achieve more operational victories, which could accumulate into a strategic victory. It isn't fronting a war but an existential crisis. When facing an existential crisis, the goal is to escape it utterly, get out of it, and prove your tangible "existence”.

Even if that means the destruction of all that exists around you and threatens the legitimacy of your existence, Israel does not fight to win but to survive.

The only goal Israel achieved from its war with Lebanon was Separating the Lebanon front from the Gaza front, which means an operational victory and a lot of pointless destruction, which for sure doesn’t weigh any strategic value.

Israel deeply knows that they didn’t destroy Hezbollah's military infrastructure, and the group can continue fighting for months, mobilise a lot of militants, and receive a lot of weapons. The only way to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure is to cut off its supply route from Iran, which passes by Syria.

This raises two scenarios; the first one is a daily air campaign to target Iranian-Hezbollah moves in Syria, which is expensive, Or to stimulate and support opposition military groups, the less costly and most impulsive to burn.

While the opposition military groups operate, Israel will Refresh forces and get armament. When it is ready, It will discover that Hezbollah is violating the ceasefire rules and launch another war, but now, Hezbollah lacks a supply route.

Who would be interested in investing in these operations in Syria?

1.  The EU is maintaining relations with Syria; for example, Italy named Stefano Ravagnan is currently the foreign ministry's special envoy for Syria. The director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma stated that "Europe will eventually have to follow" and normalise its relations with Syria.

• The US is in full Lame Duck modus, so the US doesn't buy or sell any projects meanwhile, and I do doubt that the US is interested in an Islamic State bordering Israeli entity.

•  Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Syria and completed the reconciliation with the Syrian government. We also saw that Syria’s national airline resumed flights to Saudi Arabia after a 12-year interruption, highlighting Saudi interests in a stable Syria.

•  Russia and China are two strong alliances, and Syria has a sea they didn't have.

•  Turkey searched for the opportunity to sit with Al Assad and is probably creating it now. Earlier this year, Turkey initiated normalisation talks with the Assad government. Still, these efforts were unsuccessful, as Damascus insisted on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria as a prerequisite.

After this quick stakeholder analysis, there is a very unlikely interest in eliminating the Al Assad regime. Those Who are interested in this conflict -Israel and Turkey- also don’t want to get rid of the government; they need to improve their negotiations with Assad as they think “more pressure, more profit.”