Georgia is currently transitioning, with the Georgian Dream (GD) Party securing 54.0 per cent of the election votes. However, outside Tbilisi, there are accusations and witnesses of vote rigging, manipulation, vote buying, and intimidation tactics. President Salome Zourabichvili has declared the elections rigged, leading to protests outside the Georgian Parliament. This uncertainty about Georgia's future political landscape intrigues political analysts and scholars.

By Ahsan Ali
Georgia is amid chaos, and people are chanting against the government, which is reaching Brussels, Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. EU accession was frozen after the “foreign agents law” was passed, similar to the Russian one. It led to further political turmoil and instability, where the Georgians saw their future in Europe and identified themselves as “Europeans.”

The implications of Georgian elections and their tilt towards the West, Moscow, and Beijing are strongly geopolitical, which can wedge the bets and complicate things. The country hasn’t forgotten its 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, which made Russia an aggressor and occupied 20% of the state, with ethnic cleansing of Georgians.

Then President Mikhail Saakashvili miscalculated that NATO would come to his aid. The Russo-Georgian war, which ended up in Georgia losing 20% of its territory, was a big blow, and Georgia expected similar NATO involvement in Yugoslavia, where they bombed Serb forces.

The geopolitical situation was different. Georgia is geographically connected to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, with direct intervention, and its location is on the edge of Europe rather than inside. Since then, Georgia has balanced the edge, with heated debate over its territorial integrity, relations with Russia, European integration, and a dynamic, evolving foreign policy.

The October 2024 elections are dynamic and give a precise image of how the polls can be applied. The Georgian Dream Party won the electorate by 54.0 per cent, but under critical observation, marred the elections with rigging, misinformation, and vote buying.

The GD, which came with the motto of “Peace not war”, promoted dialogue and cooperation with Russia and made the Georgians remember the Russo-Georgian war and Russian incursion into Ukraine. With GD in power, it is passing laws that do not cooperate with EU laws, yielding grounds for smuggling Western products into Russia by not imposing sanctions. A relaxed attitude towards Russia. GD under Bidzina Ivanishvili will continue the ground with potent measures to balance and allow Russia’s backyard to be under Russian influence to some extent.

The party is determined for Georgia to take a balanced approach by taking laws that are similar to Russian ones, such as foreign agent laws, and LGBTQ laws that will prohibit same-sex couples from adopting children. The increasing variation of Georgia is taking the balanced approach because it knows that NATO won’t come to its aid in case of a Russian invasion.

NATO membership happens when the state’s territorial integrity is not in conflict. GD leadership has already observed the case in Ukraine, where many cities are left in ruins and memories of the Russo-Georgian war have not faded.

To uphold Georgia's status quo, GD might force the EU to be pragmatic in accepting elections rather than re-election. The Georgian state faces a democratic backslide with eroding rights, civil liberties, and alignment with the European Union. GD's policy may become the strategic foreign policy of turning eggs into Chinese, Russian, and EU baskets by taking a foreign policy that will benefit it.

Georgia's domestic and foreign policy, particularly its relationship with Russia, could potentially hinder its entry into the EU. If the people of Georgia resist the GD’s aspirations of neutrality, the country could face a scenario similar to that of Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014. This potential scenario is sure to make the audience feel apprehensive about Georgia's future.

The prospect of the pro-Western alliances’ Coalition for Change (CFC) or Unity — National Movement winning could stabilise the European Union in dealing with Georgia. As the CFC was built of different parties, the coalition could oversee a compromise-based government against the GD with fragilities. But their staunch EU aspiration, which is harder than Ukraine, could have seen Russian boots in the Georgian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to make deterrence.

A pro-Western government in Georgia could significantly affect the country's foreign relations. Such a government would likely avoid warmongering statements against Russia, potentially resetting ties with the EU and encouraging dialogue. However, it could also lead to suspending or revising contracts with non-Western powers, such as the Chinese-led consortium for the deep-sea port in Ankalia.

The sanctions on Russia would have been foreseen, and the smuggling of Western items from Georgia to Russia would have become stringent. The government may have terminated pro-Russian laws, such as foreign agents and anti-LGBTQ laws, and may have imposed more pro-EU laws with judicial and executive reforms.

President Salome Zourabichvili's departure from office would symbolise reforms, as she is concurrently the symbol of protests against the government. Under such an administration, defence spending might have been readjusted to fall into NATO lines and prepare for future warfare with Russia.

With Trump in office, Georgia in both administrations may face a priority fall. Such a Western administration could have reset relations with the EU and encouraged dialogue rather than bellicose behaviour against Russia. It would probably familiarise the scene with Ukraine and Biden's rhetoric of 2022, which provoked the war. Still, the security of its state could have been put at stake, Russian engagement could have been jeopardised, and gambling with Russia would have consequences.

The departure of pro-EU President Salome Zourabichvili meant that the last pro-EU office has been emptied, and Georgia may turn out to be more anti-EU. The sanctions on Ivanishvili have complicated the situation for Georgia, and the EU suspended Georgian accession due to rising anti-government sentiments. Somewhere, it can be understood that the Georgian Dream Party may navigate Georgia's complicated path as the neighbour of Russia with tacit support from Moscow.

It may complicate its path with the EU. With vitriol, the Ukrainian Maidan Revolution was also similar in scenario, which led to Russian intervention. Meanwhile, Russia may not afford another intervention, but it may take some asymmetric action, which can complicate the matter in Tbilisi. Post-Soviet states may have to take a tightrope-balanced approach to navigate the path that can avoid irritating Russia and balance it with beneficial deals with the EU and America.

With Georgia's presidential symbol changed and Ivanishvili evading sanctions by transferring funds from the US to other foreign banks, Western states are scrambling to impose sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili.