The ascendancy of US President Donald Trump to a second term came with a seismic change in the global structure and policies. The US faced an overhaul of policies and institutional change domestically, with President Trump firmly committing to its pledges with overt changes. Similarly, in the foreign policy sphere, Trump came with a heavy hand of change, treating allies as adversaries and upholding traditional friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
By Ahsan Ali
The “24 hours-end-of-the-Ukraine-war " was one of the election pledges that President Trump is attempting to make more benign to Russia and its actions in Ukraine. Trump's unpredictable moves, including besetting Secretary of State Marco Rubio to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh and completely sidelining the European Union and Ukraine, have rattled.
The last stroke was observed with a verbal spat between US President and Vice-President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, with accusations of thanklessness making a jolt across Europe. There is nothing deniable about President Trump's bureaucratic style in politics, which is more about finding profits than the leadership attaining real solutions to problems.
This can be understood by the recent US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine on a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and the Black Sea to allow the safe export of commodities and harness initial confidence-building measures. Regarding negotiations, Russia is understood to be in a maximalist position and wants maximalist territorial gains and Ukraine left out of NATO.
The backlash of the US was more realised by someone in Europe, who, in the Cold War and the post-Cold War era, has seen the US dominate with suspicion. The realisation came up with French President Emmanuel Macron, who realised that when British Keir Starmer and French President met Trump, they were more open on “diplomatic odds” rather than allies with understanding.
The French understanding of the Americans and the British has not been amicable since the Cold War era, when then-French President and leader Charles de Gaulle withdrew from NATO military command in 1966. The assessment came with the US being closer to the British than the French, and de Gaulle urged the Europeans to find their military independence rather than look towards the US.
De Gaulle's initial placement came in the “Inner Six” (France, Luxembourg, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands) of Europe, the founding members of the European Union. Due to the economic destruction and political upheaval, with reluctance to allow Germany to have armaments, Europe couldn’t follow Gaulle's thought, but France developed its nuclear capabilities.
With Trump's first presidency, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Macron endorsed a joint “European Army” in 2018. The Gaullist thought is making moves and getting back into mind, as President Macron endorses a more Eurocentric security-independent policy instead of relying on the US. Where the US is increasingly becoming unpredictable, and the next five years of President Trump,
Europe may ultimately contact President Macron to find a solution to military independence. Where previously, NATO members spent more GDP on the economy rather than NATO and defence, now they are increasingly becoming focused on the defence of Europe and their countries. Between 2021 and 2024, defence spending in the EU increased by 30% to 1.9% of GDP, but now the stakes are higher than before.
The thought carries a big vision as the new defence spending may change internally, with Poland and Germany announcing their defence and military spending increases. The continent may need leadership, and after the UK's departure from the EU, France and Germany are jointly observed as the leaders of the EU with their mammoth economies.
Trump's presidency will allow Europe and the UK to rethink their defence spending and opt for an independent defence structure under Paris and Berlin for the continent. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and will not be a member in the current scenario. Still, the new structure may provide some security guarantees for Ukraine in case of future Russian aggression.
Although the dynamics present an “imposed peace deal” that can be reached between Ukraine and Russia under the Trump administration, EU spending or backing of Ukraine may influence the events further, including the negotiations. Understandably, Macron will not leave Zelensky to face Trump and Vance alone; instead, he and Starmer may accompany him to the talks between Zelensky and Trump for the minerals deal and security.
Where the past presidency was gloomy, President Trump, the current presidency, with the Russian invasion, makes Paris's past prospects of the European Army into “factuality.” Macron may potentially provide nuclear deterrence to the EU and Ukraine as the world is resetting. Further, the Gaullist approach will openly come out of the shadows from Paris to Brussels, with a defining strategy of Europe to defend itself, as it had relied on the US for a long time.
Where the NATO alliance may remain “steadfast,” the European security architecture may change with potential internal reformation and advancement, potentially with Paris and Brussels making decisions. Gaullism may dominate the next 20 years if the US presidency remains Euro-skeptic, with Trump relatives or Trump-minded politicians taking charge in the White House.
The French under Macron may take the striking ideas of Charles de Gaulle, further reintegrate the EU under military and defence mechanisms, and bring the significance of self-protection. The Ukraine issue made Macron understand how vital the integrated and robust European security structure is, especially with Trump's ascension to the presidency.
Although considered bureaucratic in the EU internal system during 2014–15, the need for change is arguably understandable, especially on the diplomatic and policy shift from the US. President Macron's previous comments on European “strategic autonomy” have created controversy and have not been heeded by the European capitals; now, the focus is on Paris and how it sets the new relations with the US. Munich Conference further cast understanding on the Europeans, making Europe more efficient in weapon technology.
The boat ahead carries issues of mechanisms for operating the European Army and an understanding of the urgent new European security outlook. The EU states that may come on such a quest for a “European Army” may have to sacrifice the welfare state, with more taxes imposed, or spend their money more wisely on defence structures under Paris-Berlin leadership.
The rhetoric of the Russian invasion may be on course, as the Russo-Ukrainian peace deal may change the borders of Ukraine and Russia, with the controversial Russian proverb, “Russian border never ends.” Internally, France may face Elon Musk's interference by supporting the Marine Le Pen National Rally party, which carries Trump’s allied vision.
Musk may attempt indirectly to change such independent military policies discourse by supporting far-right or Euro-skeptic parties, as it did in Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) of Alice Weidel, where AFD had already won the second most seats in the elections. European capitals where pro-Moscow or pro-Trump heads of government, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni,
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico hold the office. Still, both have understood the need for European defence to be robustly calibrated with a defence structure.
Recently, the European leaders of Poland and the Baltic states cautiously welcomed the French nuclear umbrella. These states faced Russia geographically directly as a threat and welcomed French leadership.
The strategic significance of France can be determined as it, alongside the UK, holds the nuclear arsenal. Still, compared to the UK, France is more confronted with the threat of Russia and is taking on the role of shifting global dynamics in leading European security. As previous presidents have aspired to take European security from Europe, France, under Macron, is increasingly facing the shifting security dynamics of Europe, with a changing US position.
The world may face change in the coming months and years, with French President Macron increasingly taking the Europeans on the independent path of military autonomy under French Gaullism.
Ahsan Ali specialises in the Iran section at the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad. He is an independent researcher on the Middle East, French foreign policy, and the Russo-Ukrainian War. He has written research papers for RIAC, an IRS journal, and articles for political platforms. This is his first contribution to The Liberum.
