The peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have progressed much since Baku took back control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. All progress was made possible through bilateral context and negotiations; instead of continuing on this path, Armenia insists on inviting more parties to the negotiation table. It remains unclear when Yerevan will cut the knot on changing its constitution with a territorial claim on Nagorno-Karabakh. “Armenia holds the key to lasting peace with us”, a top diplomat from Azerbaijan said.

By Arthur Blok
“15 of 17 articles of the peace agreement between our two countries have been agreed upon, and negotiations are continuing about two outstanding articles”, the diplomat continued on the condition of anonymity to The Liberum. “Our primary concern is not the peace agreement itself but the continuous presence in the Armenian constitution and the territorial claim of Azerbaijani land.

He added: “Bilateral talks proved to be much more result-oriented and successful than any other format that existed for decades before but brought zero results. “Despite all the progress made, Armenia insists on holding on to institutions like the Minsk Group.”

The comments were made on the sidelines of the annual meeting organised by The European Network for Azerbaijani Studies (ENAS) and the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), an international affairs think tank. A tradition launched three years ago in which senior international diplomats, scholars and other experts are invited to discuss significant developments in Azerbaijan and the South Caucuses.

The Liberum was honoured to be invited to this year’s edition.

The senior diplomat, who was present in the past four years at all the significant rounds at the negotiation table, emphasised that it was ‘unfortunate’ that his Armenian counterparts still do not have a clear vision or picture of what they will do with the constitution: “Nikol Pashinyan said that the Armenian government is planning to deal with the issue of the Armenian constitution because they plan to make changes to the constitution, which is part of a broader agenda.

He added: “Pashinyan referred to 2027. In our part of the world, when you say that I am going to the Taiwan issue in three years, it means that I'm not interested enough to deal with this. If this is not fixed, any agreement we sign will be void, no matter the arrangement made from the signing.”

The diplomat raises a fair point by elaborating on this challenge. No international commitment and no international allegations can contradict your constitution, or any other act adopted by a referendum.

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been crippled for over 30 years by the long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The enclave became a focal point of conflict during the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s when Armenia seized control of the enclave and surrounding territories, resulting in more than thirty thousand casualties and displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis.

After three decades of diplomatic efforts failed to yield a political settlement, Azerbaijan decided to revert to using force. In 2020, in a six-week war, it regained complete control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Initially, Moscow brokered a ceasefire, but when negotiations failed again to resolve the status of the enclave, Azerbaijan reclaimed the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh three years later in a military strike carried out Sept. 19–20, 2023, displacing more than 100,000 Armenians who fled as they refused to accept Baku’s jurisdiction.

Minsk Group & border
The Minsk Group has tried unsuccessfully to resolve this protracted conflict since 1992; Azerbaijan considers the group ‘totally dead’ since no funding or activity has been seen in the past four years. The “Minsk Group” of the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe acted as a mediator in the conflict involving the former Soviet region, to no avail.  
The status of the Minsk Group remains quite tenuous. Armenia continues to insist on its relevance and insists on maintaining the group's involvement. Baku, given that the situation has been resolved in a draft peace agreement that respects each country's territorial integrity, sees it as an institute that slows the peace negotiations.

In addition, co-chairs of the Minsk Group (Russia, France, and the United States) are currently unable to collaborate effectively, complicating any potential role they might play in future negotiations.

The diplomat emphasised many positive developments regarding the demarcation and state border. The commissions, led by the deputy prime ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, made huge progress this April. For the first time in history, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to limit and demarcate a piece of state border (13 km).

“This is the first time a positive outcome was achieved based on the negotiation. And this part was, by the way, very sensitive because in this part, in this specific kilometre, Armenia actually occupied some part of Azerbaijani territory for villages, and this situation was resolved peacefully”, he said.

For those interested, it's advisable to research the history of the conflict to understand better what happened last year. Studying the 1993 UN Security Council Resolutions (822, 853, 874 and 884) is essential in that perspective. Faced with the prospect of rule by Azerbaijan, tens of thousands of Armenians, most of whom were illegally occupying Azerbaijani land, fled back to Armenia.

Negotiations will resume in early 2025.