Unlike China, Europe, and the United States, the Middle East's electric vehicle (EV) market, including the Gulf, is still in its early stages. Governments are trying to turn the tide by establishing a charging station network to make EVs more accessible and convenient for drivers. But will the Middle East really go electric in the foreseeable years ahead?

By Nikola Mikovic
As Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently wrote on X (former Twitter), “99% of cars will be electric and autonomous in the future.” In his view, manually driven gasoline cars will be “like riding a horse while using a flip phone.”

Fully aware that the future of transportation is all-electric, many Gulf nations—despite being some of the world’s leading fossil fuel producers—have started preparing for a “green new world” in which electric vehicles will likely become the norm. Even in 2025, EVs are expected to make up to 20% of new car sales in the region. In 2035, electric vehicles could account for 64% of the Middle Eastern market.

Indeed, the EV market in the Middle East and globally is expected to witness massive growth in the coming years. Presently, EV adoption in the region is still in the early stages of development. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) leads with a 3% EV penetration of new car sales, while other Middle Eastern countries are below 1%.

For nations such as Syria and Lebanon, where people struggle with daily power shortages, the energy transition and the pursuit of electric vehicles seem distant and unrealistic. For the energy-rich Gulf nations, at least two major obstacles discourage customers from purchasing EVs.

It is no secret that the extreme temperatures in the region pose a serious challenge for electric vehicles. When temperatures rise above 35°C (95°F), EV Li-ion batteries usually overheat, causing them to discharge faster. Also, insufficient charging infrastructure remains a significant barrier to the growth of electric vehicles in the car market.

While waiting for manufacturers to develop more advanced and efficient cooling systems for EV batteries, regional nations have begun building charging stations. In the UAE, ADNOC Distribution, the country’s largest fuel distributor, has agreed with Abu Dhabi National Energy Company—one of the UAE's biggest integrated utility companies—to build and operate 70,000 charging points in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi by 2030.

In Saudi Arabia, the number of EV charging stations will grow rapidly over the next few years, which aligns with Vision 2030. In neighbouring Oman, where the number of electric vehicles rose 300% 2024 compared to 2023, EV charger manufacturer Zerova Technologies and Muscat Gas, a liquid petroleum gas company based in Muscat, have announced a partnership to build charging infrastructure in the Gulf nation.

Since the region is witnessing substantial investment in EV infrastructure, energy leaders from around the globe will gather in Abu Dhabi from January 14-16, 2025, at the World Future Energy Summit, which is part of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, to discuss further development of the EV sector. They are expected to announce measures to encourage wider EV adoption in the Middle East.

According to Roberto Colucci, Director of Electric Mobility at ZEEKR AWR, there is a clear appetite for demand as the end users are “really starting to understand the benefits of EV adoption.”

“From 2015, between 50 and 80 electric vehicles were imported to the United Arab Emirates annually. In 2024, the total import figures will likely hit 20,000, with a projected 30,000 by the end of next year,” he stressed.

The oil-rich nation aims to increase the share of EVs on the country's roads to 50% by 2050. In 2010, when electric vehicles were in their infancy, Masdar, the United Arab Emirates’ clean energy powerhouse, began testing self-driving electric cars. Nine years later, the company launched the first fully electric passenger bus in the Middle East, while the UAE converted 20% of its government fleet to electric vehicles.

Middle Eastern and Saudi Arabia authorities actively encourage citizens to purchase electric vehicles. As a result, the EV market in the broader Middle East and North Africa region is expected to reach 45,000 units by 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9.07%.

That is, however, well beyond the global EV sales growth, which reached 35.5% in September 2024. China made the largest contribution, accounting for 80% of global EV sales growth, while the US and Europe are expected to see slowing electric vehicle demand and sales in the near term.

Reports suggest that European carmakers are struggling in the global electric vehicle market due to weak demand, high production costs, and the challenge of managing the shift to EVs, all while trying to fend off competition from China. As a result, in many Western European countries, more drivers are choosing gasoline or diesel vehicles over electric ones.

The Gulf region, meanwhile, is seeing substantial investment in EV infrastructure, including the expansion of charging networks. As regional actors continue to invest in renewable energy, especially solar power, there is clear potential for synergies with the EV market.

Indeed, the future of electric vehicles in the Gulf looks promising, although regional governments will have to continue taking steps to improve infrastructure, reduce costs, and address existing barriers to ensure widespread adoption,