As the Middle East reshapes itself in the wake of seismic shifts, including the October 7 war in Gaza, the erosion of Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, and the fading prospects of Assad’s regime in Syria. Iraq stands at a pivotal juncture in the world's history. It is no longer a mere post-conflict community or a fragile state emerging from the clutches of dictatorship. It has now risen as the last great battleground for influence between rival regional and global actors.

By Adnan Nasser & Hiba Abdulwahab
This clash of titans is most visible in the capital, Baghdad, which, once an epitome of Arab pride and heritage, has now been caught between waning Iranian hegemony and a resurgent Sunni Arab axis. The metaphor “the last card on the table” is more than a mere rhetoric.

It symbolises the strategic importance of Iraq in the new Middle Eastern order. Following the steady erosion of Iranian influence in key strongholds such as Damascus and Beirut, Baghdad has become Tehran’s last defensible outpost.

Conversely, for the Gulf capitals and Ankara, Iraq represents the final frontier in establishing a post-Iranian regional balance of power, one that emphasises Arab solidarity, state sovereignty, and the exclusion of militias from governance.

At this critical crossroads, Iraq faces a choice: either to return to the Arab fold and integrate into a new regional axis being shaped by Gulf capitals, Syria, and Turkey, or to remain firmly in the grip of Iranian influence. At the same time, Tehran struggles to reorganise its collapsing project after a string of devastating setbacks at home and across the region.

Baghdad’s Geopolitical Value: Why does Baghdad matter?
The pivotal value of Baghdad lies in geography, history, and symbolism within the Arab landscape.  Geographically, Iraq connects the Levant, the Gulf, and Anatolia. Alignment with Iraq influences trade routes, energy flows, and military logistics. Historically, Baghdad was the heart of the Islamic Golden Age; a cultural and political capital whose legacy still resonates. Moreover, symbolically, Iraq’s orientation sets a precedent.

This is why Baghdad is the “final stop.” It is not just about Iraqi politics; it is about the ideological, strategic, and diplomatic contours of the next Middle East. Suppose Baghdad joins the new Sunni Arab regional axis led by Riyadh, Damascus, and Ankara, backed by a growing regional consensus. In that case, it signals the end of Iran’s expansionist arc from Tehran to the Mediterranean.

If it remains aligned with Iran’s crumbling project—its proxies dismantled one after another in Damascus, Beirut, and soon, perhaps, Sana’a—leaving Baghdad as the last fortress Tehran clings to with all its might, it offers Tehran a lifeline and prolongs regional polarisation.

Newly Emerging Realities on the Arab Front
The rapidly changing landscape in the region, evident from Damascus’ liberation, ongoing turmoil in Yemen and the altering power play within Beirut, is further consolidated from the recent visit of the US President to the Gulf.  Referring to it as “great four days, historic four days," POTUS signed deals totalling more than $ 2 trillion (£1.5tn). This massive investment is a testimony to the strategic shift in US foreign policy towards the Gulf from oil-for-security to stronger economic partnerships rooted in bilateral investments.

In a striking statement made during his time in Riyadh, President Trump compared Baghdad to Kabul, highlighting the Iraqi government’s repeated failures to build a functioning state, much like the former Afghan administration. This striking statement, as such a critical juncture, reflects America’s strong warning against any aspiring challengers in the region and a declaration of economic, political, and military supremacy.

It is worth noting that US strategic concerns have shifted significantly in recent times. No longer interested in costly nation-building, Washington is now playing a balancing role: empowering regional partners, containing Iranian ambitions, and selectively engaging through economic diplomacy and security cooperation.

As regional files are closed and battlefronts slowly settle, the Iraqi file remains the last unresolved issue on the negotiation table between Washington and Tehran. The real question is no longer just about Baghdad’s fate, but about its role in the emerging Middle Eastern order. Will it mark the end of Iran’s expansionist ambitions? Or will it become the opening chapter of new high-stakes deals struck behind closed doors? 

Amid this shifting regional order, the following realities are worth perusal.

The Iranian Retreat: A Crumbling Project
Tehran’s influence in Iraq reached its zenith in the years following the U.S. withdrawal in 2011. Through a network of proxy militias, economic dependency, and religious institutions, Iran embedded itself deeply into Iraq’s political and security architecture.

The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an Iraqi state security service co-opted by Iran to politically infiltrate Iraqi internal affairs, was initially formed to counter ISIS; however, later, it became a tool of Iranian strategic depth. Politically, Shi'a Islamist parties with loyalty to Iran held sway over successive governments. The tide began to shift dramatically with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, the sole architect of Iran’s regional militia strategy.

Anti-Iranian sentiment within Iraq surged, particularly among young Shi'a Iraqis who saw Tehran not as a protector but as a foreign occupier exploiting Iraqi sovereignty. The 2019 Tishreen protests underscored this generational rupture. Protesters chanted not just against corruption and sectarianism, but against Iran’s grip on Iraqi affairs. Iran’s domestic crises have only accelerated this decline.

Economic sanctions, political unrest, and growing dissent at home have left Tehran overextended. Its allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria (Assad) face increasing isolation and economic collapse. Even the Houthis in Yemen, once a symbol of Iranian reach, are under severe pressure. The result is that Baghdad is now a two-edged sword for Tehran, both a strategic liability and a vital asset.

The New Arab-Turkish Axis: Emerging Realignments and Iraq’s Conundrum
As Baghdad continue to grapple with its Sophie’s Choice, a new regional axis is emerging and reshaping the balance of power within the Arab world. Once fragmented by rivalries and divergent priorities, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, and even Syria are moving toward a pragmatic consensus: restoring state sovereignty, diminishing the influence of non-state actors, and promoting regional economic integration.

This axis is not monolithic, nor is it entirely friction-free. Yet it represents a significant recalibration from the post-‘Arab Spring’ era. Crucially, this alignment is not solely Sunni-centric.

• The inclusion of Damascus, which has been long estranged due to its alliance with Iran, signals a strategic shift.
• Bashar al-Assad’s slow return to Arab diplomacy reflects a broader understanding: regional fragmentation only serves external powers.
• Turkey’s recalibrated approach, marked by rapprochement with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, also demonstrates a pivot away from ideological adventurism toward realpolitik.

Iraq’s geostrategic location places it at the intersection of these emerging currents. Its economic potential, energy reserves, and transit corridors make it an indispensable piece of the regional puzzle. More importantly, Baghdad is being courted not as a junior partner, but as a potential keystone state in a new Middle East order. Against this backdrop, Baghdad faces two stark choices.

1. It can integrate into the emerging regional consensus, a move that would require distancing itself from Iranian-backed militias, enhancing state capacity, and committing to economic reform. This path offers promise: foreign investment, regional cooperation, and perhaps most importantly, restored sovereignty.
2. It can remain entangled in Iran’s fading but still dangerous web of influence. This would mean continued internal fragmentation, economic stagnation, and international isolation. Tehran’s model of weak central governance, supplemented by armed proxies, is fundamentally incompatible with Iraq’s long-term aspirations.

Making this choice is far from straightforward for the Iraqi leadership right now. Iraq’s internal politics remain fragmented. Parliament is divided along sectarian and ideological lines. Iranian-backed groups continue to wield significant influence, particularly within the PMF and the judiciary. Corruption continues to paralyse governance.

The bureaucracy is bloated, and reform efforts often collapse under the pressure of politics. Moreover, Iraq’s Arab identity has been diluted by decades of sectarian politics. Reclaiming a regional role requires more than diplomacy; it demands a cultural and ideological reorientation, one that embraces pluralism, sovereignty, and regional integration without compromising national dignity. Recent steps offer cautious optimism.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani has emphasised the importance of national sovereignty and accountability for armed groups operating outside state control. Iraq’s dialogue with Saudi Arabia and Turkey has intensified, focusing on economic corridors, energy cooperation, and security coordination. However, these efforts remain fragile, vulnerable to both domestic spoilers and external pressures.

What makes Iraq’s choice even more consequential is its timing. The regional landscape is moving quickly. Red Sea security, normalisation talks between Arab states and Israel, and ongoing power shifts in Syria and Yemen all point toward a strategic window that may soon close. Ambiguity will not be sustainable. Iraq cannot remain neutral in a region demanding clarity of alignment. The new axis does not seek mere non-aggression; it requires participation.

Baghdad must articulate its role or risk becoming irrelevant in decisions that shape its future. The question posed is both poignant and urgent: Will Baghdad surprise the region and reclaim its voice, or will its fate be determined in backroom deals where its presence is absent, but its name is invoked? For Iraq to become a player rather than a pawn, it must seize agency.

This means confronting militia power, rebuilding institutions, investing in human capital, and articulating a foreign policy that serves national interests, not sectarian or ideological ones. The road will be long, and resistance will be fierce. But the alternative is clear: stagnation, subjugation, and irrelevance.

Hiba Abdulwahhab is an independent researcher specialising in regional politics and society. She is the founder and executive director of the Middle Eastern Women’s Organisation, a DC-based NGO.