The world is watching Israel’s wide-scale military operation “Rising Lion” targeting nuclear and military infrastructure deep inside Iran. The strikes focused on alleged atomic and military sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Rather than dissuading Tehran, the attacks might mark a turning point. In reality, all roads - diplomatic, military, or covert - may now lead toward one conclusion: Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb, “if it doesn’t already have one”.
By Ahmad Ghosn
Iran may have already developed at least one crude nuclear device. An unusual 4.6-magnitude earthquake near Iran’s Semnan province in late 2024 even sparked speculation that Tehran had quietly conducted an underground nuclear test, though experts later attributed it to natural tectonic activity.
Enrichment levels, plutonium stockpile movements, and unexplained military construction suggest that Iran’s nuclear threshold may have already been crossed, quietly and strategically.
From this perspective, the Israeli strikes are not a preemptive measure, but a provocation. Tehran’s calculus might now rest on justifying a dramatic retaliation—or creating the appearance of "punishment" by Israel and the U.S.—to validate the public announcement of its bomb.
By portraying itself as a victim of unlawful aggression, the Islamic Republic could claim legitimacy and necessity for possessing a nuclear weapon. In this way, Iran uses the logic of deterrence retroactively: "We were attacked, so we had no choice."
This scenario becomes even more plausible when considering that Iran has long played a psychological game, blurring lines between capability and intent. Now, after Israel’s bombing campaign and the international community's stunned reaction, revealing a nuclear bomb would serve both strategic and symbolic ends: retaliation, deterrence, and internal consolidation.
Escalation Breeds the Bomb
In a second possible trajectory, Iran does not yet have a bomb, but the current escalation will force its hand. Israel, emboldened by perceived inaction from the U.S., may consider deploying an American-supplied Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb or other deep-penetration munitions in the next wave of strikes.
The logic behind this extreme option is tactical: MOABs can destroy fortified nuclear sites too deep for conventional bombs. But strategically, it’s a Pandora’s box. A U.S.-origin bomb used by Israel would be seen in Tehran as a joint act of war, triggering a new phase of Iran’s nuclear program: not just enrichment, but weaponisation.
In this scenario, Iranian leaders, especially hardline figures within the IRGC, could argue that only a deployable nuclear bomb can now guarantee Iran’s sovereignty. The use of overwhelming force from Israel may compel Iran to break its current ambiguity and sprint toward a complete weapons system: not just a device, but warheads, delivery mechanisms, and deterrence infrastructure.
Ironically, the very tools used to prevent a nuclear Iran may be the catalysts that create one.
Assassination Supreme Leader as a Nuclear Trigger
A third, more explosive possibility: the targeted assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the East, political systems are often embodied and deeply rooted in a single person. As a result, dismantling a regime becomes synonymous with eliminating its leader.
The execution of Saddam Hussein brought down Iraq. Syria was toppled with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah was brought to its knees by assassinating Hassan Nasrallah. How do you end the Islamic Revolution in Iran? Clearly, by assassinating the Supreme Leader.
Such an act would not only destabilise the Islamic Republic but also create a moment of uncontrollable volatility. In the chaos, multiple factions—military, clerical, and political—would scramble for control. This period of instability would be hazardous: one faction, particularly within the IRGC or the nuclear establishment, could unilaterally accelerate or declare nuclear weaponisation to secure both domestic legitimacy and strategic deterrence.
The symbolism would be profound. Khamenei, Iran’s highest religious and political authority, is closely tied to the state’s revolutionary identity. His assassination would represent an existential threat to the system itself. Nuclear weaponisation, in that moment, becomes more than strategy—it becomes ideological vengeance.
Moreover, his death could sever internal taboos. Until now, Iran’s leadership has stopped short of building the bomb out of religious considerations, especially Ali Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons. Those checks could vanish overnight.
The Logic of Inevitability
Whether Iran already has a bomb, will be forced to make one after MOAB-style escalation, or will pursue nuclearisation following a political assassination, the direction of travel is transparent and irreversible.
Israel, facing a complex web of existential risks, has chosen preemption. Yet preemption does not eliminate the threat—it shifts its form. What was once an ambiguous deterrence program is now becoming a clear, accelerated race to the bomb.
From Tehran’s point of view, survival now requires nuclear insurance. The strikes have altered the psychological threshold, particularly among hardliners, IRGC commanders, and even some reformists who may no longer believe in international diplomacy or nonproliferation frameworks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is caught between strategic alignment with Israel and a growing recognition that military escalation pushes Iran toward final weaponisation. Diplomacy, already frail, may be unable to catch up.
Thus, the tragedy of this moment lies in its paradox: every possible road taken -military, covert, or political - ultimately leads to Iran becoming a nuclear state. What was once avoidable may now be inevitable. The only question is not if Iran becomes a nuclear power, but when, and what the world will do when it does.
If indeed Israel's current attack on Iran has crippled Iran's ability to launch a ballistic missile, then the biblical prophecy found in Jeremiah 49:35-39 that foretells Eman's "bow" being broken may have been fulfilled?