The war in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since 2022, may be entering a particularly dangerous phase. As the United States intensifies its efforts to end, if not freeze, the conflict, Moscow and Kyiv are keeping the door open to negotiations while gradually raising the stakes.

By Nikola Mikovic
Over the past few months, Russian officials have repeatedly announced their readiness to renew dialogue with US President Donald Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The two officials finally came to Moscow on September 5 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who did not miss the opportunity to flatter the American leader.

“I would like to ask you to convey my very best wishes and words of gratitude to the President of the United States, Mr Trump,” Putin told Kushner and Witkoff.

It remains unclear what gratitude Putin was expressing, given that the United States, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, openly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia. Nevertheless, praising Trump did not seem to help, as there were no signs of a breakthrough.

The fact that, the following day, Trump’s envoys did not fly to Kyiv directly from Moscow but instead arrived in the Ukrainian capital by train suggests the Kremlin did not make a “goodwill gesture” by allowing them to use Ukrainian airspace. Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine will effectively close Russian airspace, urging airlines to avoid it and warning that expanding Ukrainian drone operations will make the skies over Russia increasingly unsafe.

Moscow responded by striking an aircraft at Kyiv’s Zhulyany Airport, likely sending a message to Ukraine that, if it decides to “close Russian airspace,” it can expect its civilian airports and remaining aeroplanes to be destroyed. Over the past weeks and months, Russia and Ukraine have exchanged a series of drone and missile strikes on shopping malls, trade and logistics centres, as well as warehouses. Could airports and passenger aircraft be next?

Witkoff and Kushner said that new rounds of talks would take place after Russia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for September 20. But to hold the elections without fear of constant drone and missile strikes, Moscow would have to obtain “security guarantees” from Kyiv.

Given that Ukraine has significantly reduced its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and did not launch a military offensive in the southeast of the country after effectively cutting off Crimea from the rest of the Russian-controlled territory, it is entirely possible that Zelensky would be willing to provide such guarantees to the Kremlin. In exchange, he likely expects Russia to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities during the winter.

Reports suggest that Ukraine’s energy system is in a very difficult position and that the Eastern European nation faces a harsh winter if Russia resumes strikes on Ukrainian power stations. Several Ukrainian officials and analysts have urged Kyiv residents to leave the city during the winter, warning of extremely long blackouts and a lack of heating.

However, such apocalyptic announcements do not necessarily mean that Ukraine is heading for the catastrophic winter they predict.

Before reaching a ceasefire deal with Iran in April, Trump threatened to level the Islamic Republic to the ground and send it back to the Stone Age. Could it be that Ukraine and Russia are using the same strategy – issuing harsh threats while, behind the scenes, preparing to reach an agreement?

Even if that is the case, the chances of lasting peace between Moscow and Kyiv are minimal. Russia seems determined to capture the remaining parts of the Donbas almost at any cost. Only after that might it be ready to freeze the conflict. Meanwhile, it will almost certainly continue storming Ukraine’s well-fortified positions around Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka – the last bastions still under Kyiv’s control.

Once the Donbas is in Russia’s hands – albeit in ruins – Putin will be in a position to declare “victory,” even though only one of the goals of his so-called special military operation in Ukraine will have been achieved. But even then, Kyiv, firmly backed by the West, is unlikely to agree to freeze the conflict, unless its front lines begin to collapse.

For the West, it is perfectly logical to continue supporting Ukraine, regardless of the price it is paying, as the war significantly weakens Russia. The Kremlin, for its part, despite being unable to defeat Ukraine, still threatens to strike European countries and occasionally provokes them with drone incursions into their airspace.

By doing so, without causing any serious harm to NATO members’ militaries, Moscow is giving them a reason not only to continue backing Ukraine but also to step up preparations for a potential direct military confrontation with Russia.

Thus, under the current circumstances, Donald Trump has the strongest motive to push for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, as a potential ceasefire deal would allow him to portray himself as a “peacemaker” ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. But since his previous initiative, the 28-point peace plan, failed to produce a breakthrough, his latest effort is unlikely to succeed either.