Dutch politicians persist in ignoring science. While the United Nations (UN) gloomy climate scenarios are incorrect, climate policy remains unchanged. Rising energy prices lead to inflation and economic stagnation. Moreover, we are heading towards an overcrowded Netherlands with an increasing number of Muslims. All in all, material for two horror scenarios.

By Guus Berkhout
In a modern democratic constitutional state, citizens indicate which major problems the government must solve (‘the what’), and the government subsequently has the task of solving those problems professionally (‘the how’). In doing so, current policy must contribute to what the country wants to achieve in the future.

If politics makes a mess of things, as is currently the case in our country, then citizens must be able to put an end to their mismanagement through a binding referendum. If that does not happen and the government continues to muddle through, there will come a time when the damage is irreparable. Here are two horror scenarios for our country.

Disastrous climate and energy policy
It is not the laws of man, but the laws of nature that determine the Earth's climate. And it is not the Earth's climate, but our current climate policy that is causing a crisis. Experience shows that if humanity invests in adaptation technology, we can successfully adapt to extremely hot, cold, wet, and dry periods, whatever the cause.

Moreover, if we make scientific research politically independent, we will understand the causes of complex climate processes much better in the future. With that knowledge, we can adapt even better to climate change. In short, it is irresponsible for political parties to continue scaring citizens with climate anxiety.

Fortunately, we now see that it is finally being officially admitted that the most terrible future scenarios in the past climate policy are incorrect. The mass hysteria caused by this was based entirely on deceit and trickery. That shameful fact must be the starting point for a new climate policy (adaptation).

Why, then, does the political establishment still adamantly claim that humanity can bend the Earth's climate to its will? And that climate-neutral policy must be pursued ' at all costs,’ through just zero CO₂ emissions?

‘Green’ energy
Driven by the aforementioned climate hysteria, the political establishment has set up an unreliable and money-wasting energy system. Did you know that approximately 80% of our energy consumption consists of fossil fuels? Yet these were banned. But, dear politicians, what is the alternative?

Space-intensive wind turbines and solar panels are totally unsuitable for our country. With these types of ‘green’ energy sources, we always need expensive backup, with major consequences for our energy prices and, in turn, our prosperity. Large and small modular reactors (SMRs) near our major energy consumers are the only right choice. At the same time, all harmful and exorbitantly expensive CO₂ measures can also be permanently taken off the table.

Deeply regrettable
Regrettably, there are still political parties that, despite all the hard scientific and technical facts, continue to oppose nuclear energy and still want to keep pouring money into the bottomless pit of wind farms and solar farms.

And why does politics make these matters even more complicated by willfully and knowingly mixing up climate change and environmental pollution? After all, climate change is caused by immense natural forces, whereas environmental pollution is the result of human activity.

Mind you, climate change requires humans to adapt to nature, and environmental pollution requires humans to develop and use clean production technologies. Also bear in mind that CO₂ is *the* existential molecule for life on planet Earth.

It is scientifically absurd to claim that higher CO₂ emissions lead to environmental pollution. On the contrary, more CO₂ in the atmosphere leads to a greener Earth and more productive agriculture. A cost-benefit analysis of the net-zero policy will reveal deep red figures.

Horror Scenario 1: Stagflation will determine the quality of our lives
Stagflation is a disastrous economic situation in which economic growth stagnates, and inflation is high. It is a portmanteau of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation’. This combination is difficult to counter because anti-inflation policies are designed to curb economic growth.

The climate and energy policy mentioned above is a textbook example of creating stagflation. After all, energy scarcity not only makes energy more expensive but also raises the cost of almost all everyday products, because energy is required in virtually all production processes (80% of which are fossil-based!).

Hence, the rising inflation of recent years. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy scarcity is further fueled, and we are seeing oil and gas prices rise even further.But now comes the absurdity of our energy policy. Because the Netherlands does not wish to use its own fossil energy sources and still wants to be ‘the best climate kid in the class’, a huge amount of money is needed for unaffordable green projects (wind, solar, net-zero CO₂, etc.). As a result, energy prices in our country have become even higher than abroad.

The consequence is that more and more companies are dropping out and moving elsewhere. This is causing a decline in our economic growth. Here are all the ingredients for stagflation in our country.

Because stagflation is accompanied by unemployment, and we are already dealing with about 1.5 million inactive people in our workforce, we will face many extra billions in benefits. How are we going to raise that? The sad thing is that the stagflation outlined is completely unnecessary.

Dear politicians, we have over 600 billion cubic meters of gas beneath our own soil (worth €600 billion!). Start using this gas immediately over the next 30 years. In the meantime, build a network of large and small nuclear power plants. This will prevent stagflation and make our country energy independent.

Disastrous Asylum Policies
Asylum policy ought to be part of a broader immigration policy, and a broader immigration policy ought to be part of an even broader policy for population growth.

Did you know that population growth is determined by natural increase (births minus deaths) + the net migration (immigration minus emigration)? For instance, in 2023, the natural increase was -6,000, and the net migration was +137,000, resulting in a population growth of +131,000.

Please note: this concerns residents with Dutch nationality. This figure, therefore, does not include asylum seekers who do not (yet) have a residence permit, and naturally, neither does the growing group of illegal immigrants. If we compare 1995 with 2025, the population grew by 3 million souls, almost entirely due to positive net migration.

 So if we strive for a constant population size in our overcrowded Netherlands—with increasing cultural differences—then the net migration must equal the population decline. We are currently very far from that. Dear politicians, a distribution law, yes, but no asylum freeze. How did you come up with that!

Horror Scenario 2: Sharia will determine the quality of our lives
But there is more. With the unlimited influx of asylum-seeking immigrants, we are seeing the number of Dutch Muslims increase rapidly (look at the countries of origin). Given the high birth surplus within that group as well, we can expect that around 2050, the number of Muslim voters will exceed that of all other voters (much sooner in the major cities!).

In a democratic constitutional state, this implies that the Netherlands can then legitimately choose democratically to become an Islamic State.

When we see the high level of activity in our country of various political-Islamic movements, and the space that politicians in our country give them, we also see that more and more native Dutch people are leaving our country, deeply disappointed. This horror scenario has a very high degree of realism.

Dear politicians, do you not see that political Islam, with its collaborators, is claiming more and more space in the Netherlands? Every time we move a little further along (read Shahbazi, 2025). It is already so bad that critical program makers no longer dare to express their opinion on the increasing Islamic intimidation. This also applies to an increasing number of ordinary citizens.

Stop this trend and denounce the outdated asylum treaties and update the outdated asylum laws immediately. Start today with an emergency law that completely halts the influx of asylum seekers (asylum pause). Do not wait until the tipping point after which a non-violent way back is no longer possible. Surely we do not want to become a ‘Lebanon on the North Sea’?

Finally, an urgent request to all politicians: “Listen to the voter. Because of your policies, more and more native Dutch people feel discriminated against and like strangers in their own country. In this crucial phase, overcome your own reservations and work together to prevent the above horror scenarios from happening.”Take action now before the damage is irreparable. The master plan, including the solutions, is ready for you (Berkhout, Mei 2026).

Dr Guus Berkhout (born 1940) is a renowned Dutch engineer, physicist, and emeritus professor of geophysical and acoustical imaging at Delft University of Technology. He began his career at Royal Dutch Shell in 1964. Berkhout has held key academic leadership roles and is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). In 2019, he co-founded the Climate Intelligence Foundation (Clintel), a group known for promoting a critical perspective on mainstream climate change science. This is his first contribution to The Liberum.

This article was first published in Dutch in Opiniex.