When a progressively secular nation that once bore the seeds of Persian history and culture lost its identity, the Islamist Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized the revolution's momentum. Despite the immense contributions of liberals and communists in ousting the Iranian Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, they ultimately lost the plot to the radical Shiite Islamists. Khomeini and his followers rallied support behind the ethnically divided Iranian population by promoting the virtue of fundamental Shiism, consolidating the Islamic Republic’s grip on power.

By Farid Shukurlu
The Islamic Republic’s first challenge emerged immediately after declaring its vision for a new Iran when Saddam Hussein launched a surprise attack in 1980. The brutal war dragged on for eight years, ending without a clear victor but exposing the Iranian regime’s military shortcomings. The conflict revealed the weakness of Iran’s air force and infantry, as they failed to secure any significant territorial gains against Saddam's forces.

This war marked a significant shift in Iran’s foreign policy. Confronted with the harsh reality of direct military confrontation, the Ayatollahs adopted a new strategy favouring proxy warfare over open conflict. Realising their conventional military limitations, they sought to expand Iran’s influence across the Middle East by investing in militant groups and exporting their revolutionary ideology.

Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon proved to be a turning point, giving birth to Iran's first major proxy: Hezbollah, also known as the "Party of God." They quickly became a vital arm of Iran’s foreign policy, serving as a mechanism to challenge the United States and its most reliable Middle Eastern ally, Israel.

The Shiite militia launched attacks against US and Israeli targets, most infamously bombing the US embassy in Beirut in 1983, killing 17 American citizens and injuring dozens of local staff. Hezbollah also attacked US-flagged vessels in the Mediterranean and hijacked civilian planes, solidifying its reputation as a grave threat to American interests.

For Israel, Hezbollah was equally dangerous. The group not only conducted cross-border attacks but also supported other Iranian proxies like Hamas and Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq. Hezbollah played a crucial role in propping up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the civil war, with Iranian funding and training helping Assad cling to power.

Iran’s regional ambitions
Iran’s ambitions extended beyond Lebanon and Syria. After Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003, Iran swiftly filled the power vacuum in Iraq by investing heavily in Shiite militias such as the Badr Organisation, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), and Kata'ib Hezbollah. These groups expanded their military capabilities and political influence, embedding Iran’s presence deeply in Iraqi society through social and economic means. Iran's growing influence also spread to Gaza and Yemen, where it funded and trained the Houthi rebels, often described as allies rather than mere proxies.

Iran’s primary objective, however, has consistently been the elimination of Israel, which enjoys unwavering US support. Hamas, a product of Iran’s long-term strategy to weaken Israel, rose to power in Gaza following Israel's withdrawal in 2005, positioning itself as an alternative to Fatah. With support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hamas deployed suicide bombers, and developed homemade rockets frequently launched at Israeli civilians, advancing Iran’s regional agenda.

Iran also sought to extend its influence in Azerbaijan. The Nardaran events, a moment of civil unrest, highlighted Iran's attempts to spread its Islamic ideology in the region. An anti-terror operation led to the arrest of radical Shiite clerics who had received religious education in Iraq and Iran and propagated anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric.

Despite the Iranian Embassy's denials, political analysts overwhelmingly agreed that Iran played a role in Nardaran's unrest. Azerbaijani authorities, with clear evidence, prosecuted those involved for using illegally obtained weapons against the state. The tragic loss of two police officers symbolised Azerbaijan's resolute rejection of Iran’s efforts to establish a "Sharia State."

October 7
Iran’s proxy empire began to unravel following the IRGC's role in the October 7 massacre, which saw Hamas terrorists kill over 1,200 Israelis. This unprecedented attack sparked a fierce response from Israel, marking a turning point for Iran’s regional strategy.

Israel, determined to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah’s leadership, swiftly targeted key figures like Yahya Sinwar, Muhammad Deif, and Hassan Nasrallah. The destruction of Hamas’ military infrastructure and Hezbollah's operational capabilities dealt a severe blow to Iran’s plans.

The 2024 war with Hezbollah resulted in a military victory for Israel, leading to Hezbollah’s retreat and the beginning of the full implementation of UN Security Council's Resolution 1701 (which dictated their withdrawal from the border area and retrieval of their troops north of the Litani River). Lebanon, in a decisive move, elected an anti-Hezbollah president intent on reconstructing the nation without the Shiite militia’s influence.

In Syria, Turkey-backed militant groups overthrew Bashar al-Assad, eliminating another Iranian stronghold. New Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa made his stance clear, vowing to eradicate any remnants of Iranian influence and demanding reparations for rebuilding his war-torn country.

The fall of Assad’s regime also crippled Hezbollah's ability to regroup, cutting off vital financial and logistical support from Iran. To further safeguard its borders, Israel launched targeted strikes against military sites in Syria, neutralising air force capabilities and securing Mount Hermon, a strategic position overlooking Damascus and Beirut.

Iran’s influence crumbled in Iraq and Yemen as well. Western forces, led by the US and the UK, intensified strikes against Iran-backed militias, while closely monitoring and dismantling Houthi operations. With each defeat, the Islamic Republic’s proxy network weakened, losing the strategic depth it once relied upon to challenge its adversaries indirectly.

Azerbaijan, once a target of Iran's ideological expansion, solidified its alliance with Israel. The opening of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tel Aviv and the visit of the nation’s President senior aide, Hikmat Hajiyev, to Israel’s capital signalled a new era of cooperation.

Military ties between the two countries have grown since Azerbaijan liberated its formerly occupied territories in Karabakh. Regular flights from Israel supply advanced defence systems to bolster Baku's security. From that perspective, Azerbaijan stands as a striking example of Iran’s greatest failure. This Shia-majority state maintains strong bilateral ties with both the Jewish State and Sunni-majority Türkiye.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s defiant 2024 speech at the UN, where he declared, "The long arm of Israel can reach anywhere in Iran," underscored the Jewish State’s commitment to counter any threat from the Islamic Republic. With Iran’s proxies decimated and its influence waning, the once-feared network that funnelled billions into terror operations now faces a bleak future.

The enigmatic demise of Iran’s proxy empire reveals a crumbling regime that gambled on proxy warfare, only to see its investments dismantled by a coordinated response from Israel, the US, and their allies. As Iran’s grip weakens across the Middle East, its ambitions of regional hegemony seem more distant than ever, leaving a fractured legacy of failed militias and unfulfilled revolutionary dreams.