Georgia has been hit by different revolutions and protests, from the Rose Revolution of 2003 to the 2024 protests over the “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence,” under the pseudonym of “foreign agent law.” The protests have been ongoing in Georgia since 2023, with President Salome Zourabichvili in conflict with the government of the Georgian Dream Party led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

By Ahsan Ali
Georgia, which considers itself part of Europe and European values, has positioned itself as a pro-European state by aligning with different EU agreements, including a 90-day visa-free stay in the Schengen zone. Georgia, once part of the Soviet Union, is trying to free itself of Russian influence, something the Georgian political establishment didn’t allow due to the close connections between the oligarchs and Russia.

To free itself from the orbit, Georgia even entered a 2008 war with Russia, where Russia officially occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, taking advantage of the complicated fabric of the Caucasus. Georgia, which couldn’t enter the EU as a member state, should not have any territorial issues with bordering EU states.

With stalled Turkish European Union negotiations, Georgian identity, mental, spiritual, and cultural closeness, have come up and are tied to the European Union. Still, the state and people find themselves at odds in some places, such as LGBTQ, China's economic clout, and Russia's political ties with President Putin.

Although the power should have been controlled by the President and Prime Minister and ceded to parliament, it has fallen to the eminence grise of Georgian Dream Party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili. The oligarch, who made billions during the 1990s in Russia, still holds paramount wealth in Russia, criticising Mikheil Saakashvili over his handling of the Russo-Georgian war and especially his pouring support for the foreign agent law, which was similarly passed in Russia in 2012.

His speech on foreign agent law was laced with anti-Western sentiments and conspiracy theories, further pivoting Georgia away from the EU. Georgia's opposition accused Ivanishvili of being the “overlord of Georgia” and of his loyalty to the Kremlin. With his 7-billion-dollar wealth, the sources remain murky, with no checks and balances by the state or a lack of accountability.

The foreign agent law has passed, even overriding President Zourabichvili’s veto from the parliament, giving a choking shock to the EU, with icing Georgian accession into the EU. The EU halt came as Georgia intends to introduce a Russian-style anti-LGBTQ+ law that aims to erode the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals by barring them from their rights. This includes changing gender and same-sex couples adopting children, alongside previous pride parades stormed by far-right protestors.

The EU granted Georgia candidate status in December 2023 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Georgia, under the Dream Party, is observing a democratic backslide, human and civic rights issues, and a lack of further EU-backed reforms on the judiciary, with political will falling on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The situation in Ukraine has provoked emotions in Georgia, where the Georgian Dream Party is using the mantra of destruction in Ukraine, which can be similar in Georgia if not dealt with diplomatically. Georgia is tilting away from the West by allowing the Chinese-led Consortium to build the first deep-sea port in Ankalia in the Black Sea. Russia is building a naval sea base in the occupied territories of Abkhazia of Ochamchire, just 30 kilometres from the Georgian border.

Russian warships in Ochamchire will compromise Georgian ambitions to facilitate and participate in the “Middle Corridor” on trade and transportation links. The mid-1990s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline transported energy from Baku to Anatolia and the Mediterranean Sea.

Georgia's strategic transport position between Asia and Europe can further be compromised as Baku’s Zangzegur Corridor project can change ambitions. If the corridor is opened, the strategic positions of Georgia, Armenia, and Iran will significantly shift. Ankalia port construction, which was cancelled by the government in Tbilisi to appease Moscow, is now credited to Beijing, which comes on the heels of the game of the “West and China.”

 If the consortium had landed in the Western state, it could have led to a decline in relations between Russia and Georgia, with Russian threats to Georgia. Georgia, which is in Russia's “backyard,” is becoming the pawn of the West and the rest, with verbal sugar-coating from Brussels over EU and NATO membership.

 Georgia is now going to the parliamentary elections on 26th October 2024, and many things will be decided soon. The USA and EU, which are already putting bets in Ukraine and the Middle East, may not need another war or skirmishes in the Caucasus, but the eyes will be on the voting booths of Tbilisi.

The pro-European Union voters will go into elections where they have been protesting from 2023–24 and have put much at stake to be in the EU clout. Brussels will observe elections, as the next government will decide whether to be in the European camp, the unannounced Russian bloc, or the emerging Chinese group.

The elections can imply that Georgians will stay on the roads or at home. Also, how will Georgia deal with Russian shadowy influence in the face of Ivanishvili or other politicians who are unannounced and close to the Kremlin and prioritise their interests? The parallels of unofficial boundary lines within Georgia will be observed in how it will deal with Abkhazians and South Ossetians on the line, where Russia is in the backyard.

Many will closely follow Georgia's development, especially from the glass castle of Ivanishvili, which overlooks the city and its situation. All sides will vie for strategic depth to take Tbilisi under their sphere of influence and take on the dimensional future of the coming times.