Russian President Vladimir Putin (69) was inaugurated in the Kremlin on May 7 2012. I recall media coverage talking about how busy he was on his first day as president. Putin served in the KGB; FSB; Russian Armed Forces. Meaning that he was anything BUT a diplomat.
By Mohammad Ibrahim Fheili
As a political economist and risk strategist, such a presidency was worth keeping an eye on. His first claim to fame was the Crimea peninsula in 2014. This was more than enough to send a clear message to the free world that more was to come knowing that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are three shouldn't-be independent countries in Putin's eyes.
The European Union, NATO, and the United States looked the other way.
As the events leading to the Russian attack on Ukraine started unfolding, I began to wonder about the "Key Performance & Key Risk Indicators" (KPI & KRI) which will be used to monitor, assess and mitigate emerging risks. Unfortunately, peace & humanity were nowhere to be found, and all the pain points which haunted us daily throughout the COVID 19 pandemic did not teach us anything. In this perspective "us" is all the countries & all leaders on planet earth.
The Biden Administration has been pressuring Ukraine to sustain the conflict with hopes that it lasts long enough to exhaust and weaken Russia with little concern for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Daily casualties and expenditures to finance this war are high and on the rise.
That heightens the US's hope for a much longer conflict hoping that the voice of Russian opposition rocks Putin's empire and bleeds his ego as the country is expected to dive into the worst economic meltdown.
Globally, the world is preparing for the worst oil & food crisis. Over 60% of the energy supply is affected by this conflict and is facing increasing sanctions and boycotts. Venezuela is NOT ready to start pumping oil to make up for the shortage.
The US stands to be hit the least, thanks to geography and not to anything the Biden's administration did or is doing. Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned many times of such a crisis of dependency on ONE source of energy.
Now we are all at the heart of such a crisis. The whole world is paying dearly because the negative energy shock is spilling over on practically everything and quite quickly; and we are not yet talking about wheat, corn, oil and other necessities to secure food supply.
I fear that we have reached a point where the legitimate, and fair choice is between saving Ukraine Zelensky and saving planet earth. It is much more than what Europe and the world need and want. Germany stands to suffer the most, and the US the least.
The Biden Administration has been promising much more than it can deliver, while the "Greater Europe" is chewing much more than it can swallow.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's ego has grown bigger than his homeland, and the decision is no longer his. On the other hand, Putin is living megalomaniac, and between this and that this is what planet earth will be weathering in 2022.
Until we meet again in 2023 if we will have a planet left to meet on that is.
Mohammad Ibrahim Fheili is a senior Lebanese Banker and Risk Strategist & Capacity Building Expert. He has over 30 experience in the Levant region. He frequently contributes to The Levant News.